Indian stock market to see fireworks on US I-Day (Market Outlook)

The week gone by was quite predictable and had become fairly lacklustre over the first four days. Friday was different and indicated that the coming week would have a different opening and behave differently. BSESENSEX lost 440.37 points or 0.83 per cent to close at 52,484.67 points. NIFTY lost 138.15 points or 0.87 per cent to close at 15,722.20 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.66 per cent, 0.65 per cent and 0.32 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down a mere 0.19 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP was up 2.28 per cent. This indicates that the number of smaller stocks advancing were higher as the Smallcap forms the lowest priced stocks in general in the market. This is the area of concern as retail investors tend to invest in these stocks and they do not have adequate fundamentals.

The Indian Rupee lost 54 paisa or 0.73 per cent to close at Rs 74.74. Dow Jones gained 352.51 points or 1.02 per cent to close at 34,786.35 points. Dow Jones lost on the opening day of the week and then gained on the remaining four days of the week.

There were two issues which listed on Monday. The first was Dodla Dairy Limited which had issued shares at Rs 428. The share closed listing day at Rs 609.10, a gain of Rs 181.10 or 42.31 per cent. The share closed the week lower at Rs 576.55, a gain of Rs 148.55 or 34.71 per cent.

The second issue to list was Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences which had issued shares at Rs 825 and closed listing day at Rs 995.90, a gain of Rs 170.90 or 20.72 per cent. The share closed the week slightly higher at Rs 1,016.55 a gain of Rs 191.55 or 23.22 per cent.

The issue from India Pesticides Limited which had tapped the markets with its fresh issue of Rs 100 cr and an offer for sale of Rs 700 cr and allotted shares at Rs 296 would be listing on Monday.

There are two primary issues which are tapping the capital markets in the coming week. The first is from G R Infraprojects Limited which is an offer for sale in a price band of Rs 828-837 and for a sum of Rs 1,191 cr. The issue consists of 1.15 cr shares. The issue opens on Wednesday the 7th of July and closes on Friday the 9th of July. The company is a road developer and is presently developing roads under the BOT and HAM models. It has a healthy order book of over Rs 19,000 cr currently. The company reported revenues of Rs 7,244 cr in the year ended March 2021 and a net profit of Rs 780.60 cr. It enjoys healthy margins as compared to its peers of 19.50 per cent at the EBITDA level and 10.59 per cent as net margins. The EPS is Rs 98.31 and the PE multiple based on this EPS is 8.42-8.51. the price multiple based on competitor's valuation is reasonable and attractive.

The second issue which is also an offer for sale is from Clean Science and Technology Limited. The issue opens on Wednesday the 7th of July and closes on Friday the 9th of July. The issue is for Rs 1,546.62 cr in a price band of Rs 880-900. The company is into the business of making performance chemicals, pharma intermediates and speciality chemicals for the FMCG industry. The residue from the manufacturing process results into by-products which are difficult to dispose of and the uniqueness of the company Clean Science, is in doing so without these difficult to dispose by-products. The company is into a niche business and the processes it uses to make the chemicals, is the key to high margins which are sustainable.

The company reported revenues of Rs 512.4 cr for the year ended March 2021, EBITDA margins of 55.5 per cent and a PAT margin of 38.7 per cent. The company earned an EPS of Rs 18.68 for the year ended March 2021. The PE of the IPO is 47.11-48.18 at the price band. The share is valued at comparable levels with its peers. The present top line of the company is however significantly lower that its peer set. The capacity utilisation of the company which is at around 72 per cent is in the process of being ramped up and the key going forward is the rapid increase in capacity, its utilisation and the margins on increased utilisation being maintained.

Surprisingly this is the first time that we have two reasonably large issues opening simultaneously which are entirely offer for sale issues. In over 15-20 years, memory does not recall such an event or incident.

On the Covid-19 front, the world saw 18,42,46,635 patients, 39,87,455 deaths and 16,86,25,339 patients recovering. In India we saw 3,05,45,433 patients, 4,02,015 deaths and 2,96,58,078 patients recovering. Compared to the previous week the world saw 26,87,491 new patients, 54,473 deaths and 25,36,815 patients recovering. In India we saw 3,12,250 new patients, 6,235 deaths and 4,07,049 patients recovering. In India the number of people who have been vaccinated has crossed 34 cr and is steadily increasing. With the availability of vaccines improving, the pace of vaccination is likely to step up in the current month.

The week ahead sees the US celebrating its Independence Day on the 4th of July, and stock markets would observe a holiday on Monday in the US. This would give bulls in India a chance to pull up the markets which have been lying low for some time. Movement on Friday was an indication of the impending fireworks likely in our markets on Monday. Expect markets to open with an upside gap and build on them as the day progresses. With no Dow Jones hangover in the evening, markets should do well on Tuesday as well. There could be some profit taking on Tuesday late evening or Wednesday depending on global markets. There would be an attempt to build on the new intra-day highs made on the benchmark indices of 53,126.73 points on BSESENSEX and 15,915.65 points on NIFTY, on Monday the 28th of June.

One should use these strong rallies to book profits and use the impending correction following it to buy into. Market trend would remain choppy and both sides offering opportunities to trade. The midcap and Smallcap movement seem to have entered its final leg and investments in these stocks should be encashed at the earliest and re-invested into large caps.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)