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IPL 2020: Playoff Qualification Probability and Scenario

The league stage of Indian Premier League 2020 (IPL 2020) is in last week and race for playoffs has made the IPL interesting with seven teams in the fray for playoffs' qualification. Chennai Super Kings is the only team which has already been eliminated from playoffs race. Mumbai Indians is almost qualified for the playoffs after reaching 16 points and having a positive Net run rate.
Mumbai Indians: It might not be official mathematically, but MI are the first team to all but ensure their participation in the playoffs as they reached 16 points with brilliant Net Run Rate. A NRR of +1.186 means even in the less likely scenario of five teams finishing with 16 points, MI are at a significant advantage. A win against DC or SRH will be enough to ensure a top-two finish for the defending champions as only one other team stands a chance of reaching 18 points.
Royal Challengers Bangalore: Despite a couple of defeats on the trot, RCB are still well placed to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2016. If they win one of their remaining matches, there is a chance of a five-way tie at 16 points and a NRR battle in that case is likely to be a close one. If RCB win both their matches, a top two finish is assured. However, whisper it, defeats in the last two matches could be bad news for Virat Kohli and Co. There is still a scenario where FIVE teams can be tied on 14 points, and it could be a nervy wait for RCB on the final day when SRH (with a good NRR) take on MI.
Delhi Capitals: Is it all going to horribly wrong for Delhi once again? After a superb start to the season, DC’s three consecutive defeats have put them in a tricky situation. While momentum is an intangible, the real problem for DC is that their last two matches are against MI and RCB and their NRR has taken a serious hit after heavy defeats. It is highly probable they might lose both their remaining matches and might be in a four or five-way tie on 14 points. One more win will ease their nerves, while two wins will ensure a top two finish. In all likelihood, the match between DC and RCB is a shootout to see who earns the cushion of finishing in the top two.
Kings XI Punjab: After six defeats in the first seven matches, KXIP have mounted a serious comeback by winning five on the trot. They are the form team in the tournament at the moment and have two winnable matches against RR and CSK to close the group stages out. Should they make it seven wins in a row, they will reach 16 points which could result in a five-way tie. KXIP’s NRR is not the healthiest at the moment, so KL Rahul and Co will do well to keep an eye on their margin of wins. KXIP can eliminate RR from the playoff race to reach 14 points, and face a nervy finish should they lose to CSK after that. A 14-point tie scenario is unlikely to go KXIP’s way if DC / RCB and SRH are involved. If KXIP lose their last two matches, they cannot qualify.
Kolkata Knight Riders: In a way, KKR still have their fate in their own hands. Eoin Morgan and Co could be a part of the five-way tie for 16 points and will need to improve their NRR significantly in their last two matches apart from winning them, of course. Should they lose to CSK, KKR can also eliminate RR in their final match and then hope for a unlikely NRR advantage in a 14-point tie scenario. KXIP and KKR both face the same opponents in their last two matches. And KKR have a minor advantage here in that, they play their final match after KXIP have played theirs.
Sunrisers Hyderabad: Interestingly, SRH finish with two matches in Sharjah and they are against RCB and MI. David Warner and Co must hope that their batting unit has clicked in time to make a final push. They are in a similar position as RR but with a significantly better NRR. Both their last two matches are must-win, a defeat will end their playoff hopes.Should SRH defeat RCB and other results go their way, Warner’s team have a significant advantage in the sense that they have a healthy NRR and play the last match of the group stages against a MI side that could already be assured of a top two finish. The Orange Army might have a not-so-difficult equation in front of them to qualify with 14 points.
Rajasthan Royals: The advantage RR have (if they can see it that way) in the race for top four is that their last two matches are against direct rivals to qualify. Should RR win both their matches, they will ensure KKR and KXIP can only get to a maximum of 14 points and then it will go down to NRR between multiple teams. A defeat against KXIP or KKR will end RR’s hopes of reaching playoffs. RR can qualify without NRR coming into play if they get to 14 points, KXIP and KKR lose their remaining match, and SRH lose one of their last two. Not entirely impossible.
Chennai Super Kings: CSK is the only team out of playoff contention in the business end of IPL will be right up there. Yet, like they did against RCB, CSK could play spoilsport in their last two matches as they face KKR and KXIP in need of a win to reach top four.

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