India likely to record approximately 3 lakh COVID-19 cases a day by February 2021

India may record as much as 3 lakh coronavirus cases per day by February 2021 if there's no vaccine developed till that time, researchers from US-Based Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have claimed.

The prediction was made by a team of researchers including Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim, and John Sterman of MIT's Sloan School of Management.

They used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists to arrive at the conclusion.

The team also said that the global number of COVID-19 cases may climb to 25 crore by May 2021 in the absence of a vaccine.

As per the researchers, India will surpass the US and become the worst affected country due to coronavirus. The study predicted that the US will have around 95,000 cases per day. Following the US would be South Africa (21,000 cases per day) and Iran (17,000 cases per day) by the end of February 2021.

To arrive at these numbers, the MIT researchers took three scenarios into account. First, the current testing rates and their response. Second, if testing increases by 0.1 per cent from July 1, 2020, and third, if the testing rate remains the same but contact rate to perceived risk is set to 8

"Both these scenarios project a very large burden of new cases in the fall (September-November) 2020, with hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks (primarily India, but also Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the USA). In contrast, changes in response policies would make a major difference," the study says.

The researchers also claimed that the number of cases and fatalities would increase significantly in the third scenario where testing rates remain the same but the contact rate is set to 8.

In this situation, the global number of cases is predicted to cross 60 crore.

While actual cases are far greater than official reports suggest, the majority of people remain susceptible.

Waiting for herd immunity is not a viable path out of the current pandemic," the researchers further noted.

The MIT researchers claim that the actual number of cases are 12 times higher, and deaths 50 per cent higher than what has been reported. However, all nations still remain well below the level needed for herd immunity, the study states.

The study also estimates the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for different countries over time. IFR refers to the probability of death after contracting the virus.

Several factors contribute to measuring IFR — like age, health of the population, health care facilities and the nation’s policies to protest the most vulnerable.

The researchers found average IFR to be 0.68 per cent, but noted that it varies significantly across nations. The IFR in Iceland was found to be 0.56 per cent, while it was 0.64 per cent in New Zealand and 0.99 per cent in the US.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there are 19 vaccine trials in the clinical evaluation phase and hundreds being developed and tested worldwide. A COVID-19 vaccine is yet to be approved for commercial use.