India among countries to benefit from supply-chain changes: World Economic Forum survey

New Delhi [India], May 2 : India is among those countries likely to benefit from the ongoing supply-chain changes, according to a World Economic Forum survey.

Other countries likely to benefit from supply-chain changes are Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and Poland.

WEF's 'Chief Economists Outlook' report aimed to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policymakers and business leaders in response to the shocks to the global economy from geo-economic and geopolitical events.

According to the survey, the regions most likely to benefit from supply-chain changes are South Asia, East Asia and Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the US.

"On a sectoral basis, the chief economists listed a range of industries where they expect supply chain changes to be most pronounced, including semiconductors, green energy, automotive, pharmaceuticals, food, energy and the broad technology category."

On global recession, economists are divided as 45 per cent of chief economists say a recession is likely in 2023, but the same proportion considers it unlikely.

"For example, when asked about the likelihood of a global recession in 2023, 45% of respondents said it was somewhat or extremely likely, but the exact same proportion said it was somewhat or extremely unlikely," the WEF survey document said.

While there are signs of nascent optimism, the banking disruption of March 2023, according to the survey, has caused tremors in the global outlook.

"The recent banking instability has complicated efforts to deal with runaway prices. Almost 80 per cent of chief economists think central banks now face a trade-off between managing inflation and maintaining financial sector stability. A similar proportion expect central banks to struggle to reach their inflation target," WEF said.

One of the most prominent lenders in the world of technology startups, Silicon Valley Bank, which was struggling, first collapsed on March 10, after a run on the bank by the depositors. Its closure led to a contagion effect and the subsequent shutting down of other banks, including First Republic Bank.

The collapse of a few regional banks in the US, which started with Silicon Valley Bank, has sent ripples across the global banking industry and posed fears of a contagion effect across economies.