Two-thirds of economists, major leaders in banks think US is not going to have recession: US President

Washington DC [US], June 29 : US President Joe Biden on Wednesday said two-thirds of the economists, and major leaders in the banks think the US is not going to have a recession.

"I've been hearing every month there's going to be a recession next month. The consensus is: Two-thirds of the economists and the major leaders in the banks think we're not going to have a recession. I don't think we will either," the US President said during a briefing.

The US President was asked if the worst of inflation in the US is over.

Meanwhile, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has said that US inflation could hit the Federal Reserve's two per cent target in 2025, CNN reported.

"We think it will take [Fed officials] all of this year and all of next year and into 2025 before they get inflation in line with their long-term target," Moynihan told CNN's Poppy Harlow on "CNN This Morning."

Consumers are already cutting back on spending to a level that is consistent with two per cent inflation, Moynihan said, citing Bank of America customer data.

That's both "good and bad," he added. "Good in that's what the Fed needs to see inflation under control. Not so good because it does mean we have a higher probability of a mild recession coming true", as per CNN.

Moynihan said he thinks the Fed could raise rates "a couple more times this year" to get inflation closer to its target. He also predicts the Fed will then hold rates steady until May of next year before cutting. That's in line with traders' forecasts, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But around a fifth of traders think a rate cut could come in March 2024.

As per Moynihan, the mild recession would likely come "the first part of next year" and not the latter part of this year, which he previously predicted.