Maharashtra Powerplay: Will Ajit Pawar Take the Mantle?

Mumbai: Maharashtra's political landscape continues to be turbulent, marked by two major party splits in two years. First, in June 2022, 40 Shiv Sena MLAs led by Eknath Shinde rebelled against party chief Uddhav Thackeray, forcing his resignation as Chief Minister. Joining hands with the BJP, they formed a new government, with Shinde at the helm. But the drama didn't end there. In July 2023, NCP leader Ajit Pawar made a surprising switch of allegiances, deserting Sharad Pawar's NCP to join the BJP-Shinde government. His swearing-in as Deputy Chief Minister on July 2nd reignited speculation about a potential change in leadership.

With Pawar and his 40 NCP MLAs throwing their weight behind the Maha Vikas Aghadi government, whispers about a chief ministerial shift have grown louder. Today's verdict by Speaker Rahul Narvekar on the disqualification case against 16 rebel Shiv Sena MLAs could set the stage for a new chapter in the state's political saga.

A Game of Numbers:

Maharashtra currently has 286 MLAs, with a majority threshold of 144. If Narvekar disqualifies the 16 Shinde faction MLAs, the Assembly strength will shrink to 270, requiring 136 for a majority.

Currently, the combined strength of the BJP, Shinde faction, and Pawar's MLAs stands at 185 (BJP-104, Pawar-41, Shinde-40). Disqualification would reduce the Shinde faction to 24, bringing the government tally to 169 – still above the revised majority mark of 136.

Pawar's Potential Play:

While the Maha Vikas Aghadi government seems secure from immediate threat, Pawar's entry has ignited speculation about a leadership change. Whispers abound about a deal with the BJP, where Shinde, despite being the CM, may be replaced by Pawar in the near future.

Pawar's supporters cite his experience and deep understanding of the state as reasons for his suitability for the top job. The NCP's position as a key Maha Vikas Aghadi partner further strengthens his case.

The BJP, however, faces a dilemma. Replacing Shinde with Pawar may appease Pawar's ambitions but could alienate the Shinde faction. Their 40 MLAs remain crucial for the government's stability, and upsetting them could trigger further political turmoil.