If Eknath Shinde is Disqualified, Who Could Take Over as Maharashtra's Chief Minister?

The results of the disqualification of Shiv Sena MLAs in the 2019 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly elections are crucial in the state's political landscape. In these developments, January 10th holds significant importance. Rahul Narvekar, the Speaker of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, is set to announce the disqualification of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his accompanying MLAs in the eligibility case.

If Shinde and other allied MLAs are declared eligible by the Speaker, it would provide substantial assurance for the Maha Vikas Aghadi government. However, if Shinde and other cooperative MLAs are disqualified, Eknath Shinde may need to tender his resignation as Chief Minister.

This scenario would prompt BJP and the Maha Vikas Aghadi to select new Chief Ministerial candidates. The BJP has asserted that the outcome will not pose any threat to the government.

Legal experts suggest that if Eknath Shinde is declared ineligible, he will have to resign immediately. The resignation of a Chief Minister would naturally create a political upheaval.

However, at present, the Maha Vikas Aghadi enjoys a comfortable majority under the leadership of Eknath Shinde, and the BJP is contemplating its Plan B. The question arises as to who the alternative Chief Ministerial candidates might be for both BJP and Maha Vikas Aghadi. Discussions on this matter are ongoing.

In the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, there are a total of 288 members, and a majority requires 145 seats. In the 2019 elections, BJP won 105 seats, and now with the inclusion of 40 Ajit Pawar group MLAs, the Maha Vikas Aghadi has a formidable strength.Many smaller parties and opposition MLAs are also aligned with Maha Vikas Aghadi, making it easier for them to secure a majority. Therefore, achieving the required numbers for a majority may not be challenging for Maha Vikas Aghadi.

Even if the MLAs are disqualified, it does not necessarily mean a collapse of the government. The Maharashtra government will remain stable as long as the disqualification does not significantly affect its majority. Devendra Fadnavis, the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra and BJP leader, expressed confidence in the stability of the government. He mentioned that Maharashtra's unity is legally sound and that any challenge to the Speaker's decision can be addressed in court within a 30-day period.

Meanwhile, legal notices have been filed by both the Shinde group and the Uddhav Thackeray group against each other, further complicating the situation. If either group is disqualified, the other group will also face the risk of disqualification. The Supreme Court has given the Speaker time until December 31, 2023, to make a decision in the eligibility case. This timeline may be extended by ten days.

In conclusion, while the disqualification results are eagerly awaited, the Maharashtra government is expected to remain stable. The political landscape may see changes, but the legal processes and court decisions will play a crucial role in determining the future course of action.