Omicron Variant: Third wave of COVID-19 likely to hit India in January, 2 lakh to be infected daily?

A mild third wave triggered by the Omicron (B1.1.529), the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 first reported in South Africa, is likely to hit the country in January and reach a peak by first week of February before infections start dropping to manageable levels by the end of March.

The prediction is based on SUTRA mathematical model of pandemic developed by researchers from IIT-Hyderabad and IIT Kanpur, on Saturday.

The preliminary projections of the SUTRA model, based on the present scenario of Omicron variant outbreak in South Africa, has indicated that the third wave will be milder, when compared to the significant Delta surge that took place in March/April of this year.

The National Capital recorded its first case of the Omicron variant of coronavirus, Delhi health minister Satyendar Jain said.

The patient, who was admitted to LNJP Hospital, had just returned from Tanzania. So far, India has detected a total of five Omicron cases — one in Maharashtra, one in Gujarat, and two in Karnataka, apart from the new case in Delhi.

India saw a single-day rise of 2,796 fatalities on Sunday with Bihar carrying out a reconciliation exercise of its Covid data, pushing the country’s death toll to 4,73,326, while 8,895 new infections were reported, according to the Union health ministry data updated on Sunday.

India’s total tally of Covid-19 cases has increased to 3,46,33,255, according to the data updated at 8 am.

The daily Covid infections during the second wave had reached a peak when close to 4.5 lakh cases were reported on a daily basis in March/April of this year.

The SUTRA projection model has indicated that an Omicron fueled third wave could peak at around 2 lakh Covid infections on a daily basis between January and March.

“These projections are meant to give a direction to health officials and governments to prepare for the coming months. I think the average daily infections in India will peak between 1.5 lakh and 2 lakh and not reach or cross 4 lakh, which was the case during the second wave. However, these projections are based on many inferences, since the data on Omicron is very recent,” said Dr.M.Vidyasagar, Distinguished Scientist, SERB National Chair, IIT Hyderabad, who founded the SUTRA model.