Second wave of COVID-19 spread could result in loss of 340 million full-time jobs

The ILO has warned that if another COVID-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent – equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs. According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete. The report said that there was a 14 per cent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned. It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter. 

Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019, it said. The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, none sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began. This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery, ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.